Curse

Thizzle · Jun 28, 2008, 04:54 AM // 04:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by KycooGhost

Its been said before and I'll say it again. The price drop if from farming. Its a basic economic idea. If the supply of ecto goes up they become more common (farmers farming them). With them becoming common the demand goes down as they are so easy to get. With demand low people have to sell them for less and less to get others to buy. If someone were to start to sell them to the trader because the trader was currently paying more than players were than they would get a large profit. But if every farmer did this the trader would sell them for less because it follows the rules of economics that if there is allot of some thing it sets the price lower.

you now have ecto at ~3-4k each. How to solve the price drop? Nerf the farming area, make the drop rate even lower for ecto, or make materials affected by lootscaling. The demand would stay the same but the supply would drop off the face of the map because farmers would only get a few ecto a run (1-2 instead of 5-15 (correct my numbers if I'm way off))

sry for long post.

I really don't think it's a bad thing that the price is dropping.

buckscrib · Jun 28, 2008, 05:09 AM // 05:09

I don't know if everyone remembers but ectos dropped to this price right before Factions came out. Everyone was scared that they were going to become extremely easy to farm. Once the scare was over they went back up close to 10k. There were people who made a killing off them. It's all about supply and demand. We lose favor and the prices go back up. It happens.

Master Knightfall · Jun 28, 2008, 05:19 AM // 05:19

That ecto drop when Faction was released was NOT because of over farming, but, of a RESET Anet did to the whole economy when they brought in ALL the regions into one economic setting. Ectos actually sold for 100gp each that day, I know I was there and bought up 300k worth of them.

Anet made a LOT of people rich that day and we were able to sell them puppies for 15k to 17k before the depression of GW hit and now ectos are falling by the wayside like Ambers and Jadites which used to sell for 3k to 5k each when Factions came out. And we ain't never gonna lose favor no more. lol

Ate of DK · Jun 28, 2008, 10:10 AM // 10:10

Main reason why people are farming ecto's is to make money instead of crafting an armor. It's logical that people sell them to the merchant when nobody wants ecto's in the first place. So now it's 3,7K and people still think they get enough from the merchant. Go farm gemstone sets now if you want money... soon everyone wants them to buy weapons for their HoM!

Dante the Warlord · Jun 28, 2008, 10:54 AM // 10:54

OMG listen up EVERYONE, the price of ecto is dropping not because people are overfarming it, which has been happening for a long time anyways, its becuase of HYSTERIA... Its worth less because many people spread the rumor that ectos were going to drop and started mass selling, while no one was buying---> ectos losing value... read the thread on this and you will understand

Phoenix Tears · Jun 28, 2008, 11:01 AM // 11:01

in short ?

A good thing

R.Shayne · Jun 28, 2008, 11:23 AM // 11:23

Was farming ecto when you could solo 55 the uw and I haven't never sold a one or used them as currency. I used them for what they were intended to be used for - armor. I could care less how much grind it takes someone to get the ecto for there armor, I bought mine because I liked it and if everyone in the game is walking around in FoW armor I will still like mine.

I have to agree with Dante, I think it the price drop might have been started by farmers but became a rockslide when those had been hording ecto started getting scared and flooded the market.

One thing I have noticed is that some people are constantly farming the UW now. Repeatable farming the same area is just something I can't do, it just gets old to quickly, and especially the UW since not that many rare weapons drop. The permasin build can farm a lot more places then the UW go read the build forum it list a lot of other places it can farm. I also can’t stand for farm with the same character over and over when all the other class can farm too. Of course I am not farming for gold anymore and more for rare weapons so the UW may appeal to them more.

I have also noticed that since ecto have dropped in price, shards have risen, black dyes have risen, and material used in obsidian armor have risen. Shards at one point were triple their price before the shadow form update.

kvndoom · Jun 28, 2008, 11:28 AM // 11:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Master Knightfall

That ecto drop when Faction was released was NOT because of over farming, but, of a RESET Anet did to the whole economy when they brought in ALL the regions into one economic setting. Ectos actually sold for 100gp each that day, I know I was there and bought up 300k worth of them.

Anet made a LOT of people rich that day and we were able to sell them puppies for 15k to 17k before the depression of GW hit and now ectos are falling by the wayside like Ambers and Jadites which used to sell for 3k to 5k each when Factions came out. And we ain't never gonna lose favor no more. lol

I was at work when that happened... AIEEEEEEEEEE

JoeKnowMo · Jun 28, 2008, 05:06 PM // 17:06

The Hysteria hypothesis fails because it ignores the fact that the permasin is the fastest solo ecto farm build ever. The build has increased supply well beyond the usual demand.

This might have prompted sell-offs by some of those hoarding ectos. However, describing a rational economic decision to sell off your assets before they drop even further in value as hysterical makes no sense.

Further, if the drop in price is due to hysteria, there should be a rebound in price eventually... which will not happen without a nerf to SF.

If you believe in the hysteria hypothesis, you should be buying ectos in bulk at their current price. If not, that means you don't believe they hypothesis either.

Lady Raenef · Jun 29, 2008, 01:38 AM // 01:38

In my opinion, this doesn't matter all too much. If you look, there's tons of people with Obsidian now. Even people like me who can't farm a single gold's worth have obsidian, and I got mine last year before any old drop. Anyone who's determined can get Obsidian armor, they'll just having it in shorter time. Not everyone will have obsidian, mind you. Some people will still be poor, and others don't care for the armor.

If it gets too hasty, then remove it. Give it another week or so, see what happens.

M1h4iL · Jun 29, 2008, 02:02 AM // 02:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by kvndoom

I was at work when that happened... AIEEEEEEEEEE

There was a rollback, so it doesn't matter if you were there or not.

Old Skool Mk2 · Jun 29, 2008, 02:28 AM // 02:28

Aye Master NF is lying through his teeth.

Spazzer · Jun 29, 2008, 02:32 AM // 02:32

This is awesome. I've been putting my efforts into other farms, and it looks like I can cash in on another obsidian set thanks to the overfarming.

Fates · Jun 29, 2008, 04:10 AM // 04:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by M1h4iL

There was a rollback, so it doesn't matter if you were there or not.

Not for that reset there wasn't.

Ate of DK · Jun 29, 2008, 12:01 PM // 12:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeKnowMo

The Hysteria hypothesis fails because it ignores the fact that the permasin is the fastest solo ecto farm build ever. The build has increased supply well beyond the usual demand.

This might have prompted sell-offs by some of those hoarding ectos. However, describing a rational economic decision to sell off your assets before they drop even further in value as hysterical makes no sense.

Further, if the drop in price is due to hysteria, there should be a rebound in price eventually... which will not happen without a nerf to SF.

If you believe in the hysteria hypothesis, you should be buying ectos in bulk at their current price. If not, that means you don't believe they hypothesis either.

If I needed ecto's I might buy some. But as long as I don't need any I won't buy them, no matter how low the price drops.

Just wait till the "perma-favor" is gone. Ecto's will go up again. If you ask me then "perma-favor" destroyed more than Shadow Form. I can't wait for the UW scolls to sky-rocket... and offcourse they will be sold-out in no time.

Dante the Warlord · Jun 29, 2008, 01:08 PM // 13:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeKnowMo

The Hysteria hypothesis fails because it ignores the fact that the permasin is the fastest solo ecto farm build ever. The build has increased supply well beyond the usual demand.

This might have prompted sell-offs by some of those hoarding ectos. However, describing a rational economic decision to sell off your assets before they drop even further in value as hysterical makes no sense.

Further, if the drop in price is due to hysteria, there should be a rebound in price eventually... which will not happen without a nerf to SF.

If you believe in the hysteria hypothesis, you should be buying ectos in bulk at their current price. If not, that means you don't believe they hypothesis either.

But still the ectos acquired from the permasin build does not even scratch the amount that some people have obtained through long hours of farming, just take a look at high end 1500e+xxarmbraces??? thats insane and if at least 100 people have that much then the amount produced by the permasin build is nothing compared to that maybe if they were hardcore. I view ectos like the great depression in the united states and its relations to stocks, overproduction, hysteria, mass selling and speculation... its all there (obviously the armor crafting aspect where the ectos disappear are a flaw in my thinking, but still at least 75% of the ectos hoarded to use as trade mediums). I still believe in the aspect of ectos and i believe they will keep falling.

Now im the same way, if ANET nerfs SF, then the results could be potentially worse the their buffing, because the mass hysteria of buying would kick start the price of ectos a lot... its all based on fear of a loss of money, thats my opinion, but then again its a game, so no amount of "economy analysis" could be attributed, as many people have stated

tmakinen · Jun 29, 2008, 01:43 PM // 13:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dante the Warlord

But still the ectos acquired from the permasin build does not even scratch the amount that some people have obtained through long hours of farming, just take a look at high end 1500e+xxarmbraces??? thats insane and if at least 100 people have that much then the amount produced by the permasin build is nothing compared to that maybe if they were hardcore.

The total amount of ecto in possession of the playerbase is fairly inconsequential to the trade value of the commodity as long as they are used as barter tokens between players since the value is determined solely by the volume that goes through the trader. High end traders don't typically cycle their stocks of ecto through the trader (i.e., buying ecto from the trader to get other goods, and selling back to the trader when liquidating those goods) and thus the bulk of the actual wealth is hidden to the mechanism.

Should the wealthy class lose faith in ecto and abandon it en masse in favor of some other token ecto would crash very hard just because of this huge stash of hidden wealth. Until then the value of ecto is mostly determined by the perceived difficulty of producing new ecto, and if nothing is done to nerf the run the value will stabilize around 1k by the end of the year (unless, of course, the crash comes first). However, and I want to underline this, the devaluation and potential crash are not necessarily bad things, at least to most players. Specifically, it will not - through some magic feat - crash the economy itself.

R.Shayne · Jun 29, 2008, 02:34 PM // 14:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeKnowMo

The Hysteria hypothesis fails because it ignores the fact that the permasin is the fastest solo ecto farm build ever. The build has increased supply well beyond the usual demand.

Just my opinion and experience from using both builds but the 55 solo was more affective than the permasin due to the fact that loot scaling wasn't in place and getting double ecto drops was common then. If only the permasin had been around back then. The 55 had less affect on the market then because there was a greate demand for FoW armor.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeKnowMo

This might have prompted sell-offs by some of those hoarding ectos. However, describing a rational economic decision to sell off your assets before they drop even further in value as hysterical makes no sense.

Yet people do it everyday in the real world stock market.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeKnowMo

Further, if the drop in price is due to hysteria, there should be a rebound in price eventually... which will not happen without a nerf to SF.

The only chance for a rebound will be demand and I don't think there is a demand anymore. Traders are abandoning them in favor of lockpicks (some are even going with z-keys which makes me think, people just don’t learn from pass mistakes!). The only demand for ecto will be armor. Supply and demand determines the price.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeKnowMo

If you believe in the hysteria hypothesis, you should be buying ectos in bulk at their current price. If not, that means you don't believe they hypothesis either.

I am taking advantage of it and have bought enough ecto to do three sets of armor. Once ANET does something to the permasin I am hoping shards will return to less then 1k each.

FoxBat · Jun 29, 2008, 02:40 PM // 14:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by R.Shayne

Just my opinion and experience from using both builds but the 55 solo was more affective than the permasin due to the fact that loot scaling wasn't in place and getting double ecto drops was common then.

Loot scaling doesn't affect rare materials AKA ectos, and the 55 couldn't hit the chaos plains.

I don't know what "double ecto" thing you are talking about. I've gotten 3 ectos from groups of aatxes before.

buckscrib · Jun 29, 2008, 02:42 PM // 14:42

I'm thinking now is the time I need to buy some ectos.